Data Source

Our data foundation and reliability guarantee

Our Fed rate prediction tool is mainly based on 30-day Federal Fund futures price data from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

Main Data Source: CME 30-day Federal Fund Futures Contract Real-time Prices

The futures market reflects professional traders and institutional investors expectations for future interest rate trends. These price data have high market representativeness and forward-looking nature. We obtain this information in real-time through professional data interfaces to ensure the timeliness and accuracy of predictive analysis.

All raw data comes from officially certified financial data providers, processed through strict data cleaning and verification procedures, providing users with the most reliable analytical foundation.

Calculation Method

Professional probability analysis algorithm

We use advanced quantitative analysis models, combining futures price volatility, historical data trends, and market sentiment indicators to calculate interest rate change probabilities.

Core Algorithm: Bayesian inference model based on futures price implied probabilities

The calculation process includes multiple factor analysis: implied volatility of futures contracts, volume-weighted average prices, historical price distribution patterns, and dynamic adjustment coefficients for macroeconomic indicators.

Our algorithm dynamically adjusts weighting parameters in real-time, considering market liquidity changes and abnormal volatility situations, ensuring the stability and rationality of prediction results through dynamic optimization. Specific model parameters are regularly calibrated and updated based on market environment.

Disclaimer

Important risk reminder

All information and analytical results provided by this tool are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice, trading guidance, or financial consulting.

Risk Warning: Financial markets have uncertainties, historical performance does not represent future results

Users should conduct independent research and analysis and consult professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. We do not assume responsibility for any losses caused by using the information from this tool.

Prediction results are based on current market data and historical patterns, but market conditions may change due to various unpredictable factors. Please treat all predictive information cautiously and reasonably assess investment risks.

Contact Us

We value your feedback and suggestions

If you have any questions, suggestions, or need technical support regarding our tool, please feel free to contact us anytime.

Customer Service Email

We usually respond to your emails within 24 hours

We are committed to providing users with the best service experience. Every feedback from you is very important to us. Whether it is feature improvement suggestions, data accuracy issues, or difficulties encountered during use, we will treat them seriously and actively improve.

Thank you for your attention and support of our product!

Privacy Policy

Protecting your personal information security

We highly value user privacy protection, strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations, and use industry-leading security technologies to protect your personal information.

Information Collection: We only collect necessary access data to improve service quality

We will not collect, store or share your personal identity information. Anonymous statistical data that may be collected during website access is only used for analyzing website performance and user experience optimization.

We promise not to sell, rent, or transfer any user information to third parties in any other way. All data processing activities are conducted under strict security controls to ensure information security.

Terms of Use

Basic rules for website usage

By using this website, you agree to comply with the following terms and conditions. Please read these provisions carefully.

Service Scope: This website provides Fed rate probability analysis tools and related information services

Users should use the services provided by this website legally and shall not engage in any behavior that may damage the website operation, data security, or other users interests. Malicious attacks, data scraping, or other unauthorized automated access are prohibited.

We reserve the right to modify, suspend, or terminate services at any time. Website content and functions may be updated periodically, and specific changes will be notified to users through appropriate means.